Panel I: State of the Industry

Tuesday, 08 June 10:30 – 12:00

Moderator: Tim Doiron, Infinera, USA

Panel Description:

The State of the Industry is one of the most highly anticipated Market Watch panels at OFC. Each year, a mix of industry and financial analysts present their unique view on the current state of the optical market, discussing areas that encompass components, subsystems, and system manufacturers as well as market influences and drivers. In doing so, the session will cover factors that influenced the past year and describe trends that are expected to define the future. By the conclusion of this panel presentation and Q&A, the audience will have gathered a deeper understanding of the industry with valuable market data points that will help them achieve a better appreciation for the state of the industry.

Speakers:

Alex Henderson, Needham & Company, USA
Presentation Title: 5G Edge Needs, Open Line Systems, Open Compact Modular, 800G, 400G ZR/ZR+

George Notter, Jefferies, USA
Presentation Title: An Improving Environment for Optical

Jimmy Yu, Dell’Oro, USA
Presentation Title: Optical Transport DWDM Systems Equipment Market

Andrew Schmitt, Cignal Ai, USA
​Presentation Title: Coherent Pluggable Trends

Vlad Kozlov, LightCounting Market Research, USA
Presentation Title: Welcome to the New Cold War

Biographies:

Tim Doiron, Infinera, USA

Tim Doiron is Sr. Director, Solution Marketing at Infinera, where he focuses on innovative networking solutions that include open optical networking, disaggregated routing, next-generation mobile transport, and intelligent software automation. In this role, Tim leads the global marketing team responsible for go-to-market strategies and communications programs. Built upon open, disaggregated, and programmable network innovation, Infinera’s solutions enable network operators to increase networking capacity and visibility while accelerating service velocity and simplifying operations. Tim brings more than 25 years of networking and telecommunications experience across business and technical organizations, including roles in marketing, product management, and engineering in executive and managerial roles at vendor and service provider companies, including Coriant, Tellabs, ARRIS, Cadant, Ericsson, and AT&T Mobility. Tim is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and has authored numerous articles. He holds an MBA from Webster University, an M.S. in electrical engineering from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and a B.S. in electrical engineering from Southern Illinois University. He also holds eight patents and is a member of IEEE and the Optical Society (OSA).
 

Alex Henderson, Needham & Company, USA
Presentation Title: 5G Edge Needs, Open Line Systems, Open Compact Modular, 800G, 400G ZR/ZR+
Abstract: In this brief presentation, we look at the key changing elements in the Optical Networking market.  The needs and implications of 5G and Edge Compute as increasingly dense edges are deployed and modern micro-services based, Kubernetes orchestrated applications are pushed closer and closer to the user.  We look at the accelerating adoption of Open Line Systems, Open Compact Modular, and the emerging use of 400GZR.  We offer a contrast between 400G ZR and the looming ramp of 800G.

Alex Henderson joined Needham & Company in 2012, where he covers the networking and security technology industries. Prior to joining Needham, Alex worked at Citigroup and Prudential Securities, where he worked as a senior research analyst and served as Prudential’s director of technology research. He has been a senior technology analyst for over 33 years and ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star Poll 17 times with #1 rank 11 times. He has also been elected to the Institutional Investor Hall of Fame. Alex was ranked #1 in the 2013 FT/StarMine Analyst Awards for stock picking in the Communications Equipment category. He started his career as a consultant at The Boston Consulting Group. He received a B.A. in Physics and Applied Mathematics from Bard College and an MBA from Vanderbilt University.
 

Vlad Kozlov, LightCounting Market Research, USA
Presentation Title: Welcome to the New Cold War
Abstract: The US sanctions against Huawei in 2020 were a declaration on the New Cold War. How will this impact the global optical communications industry?

Vladimir Kozlov is the founder and CEO of LightCounting, an optical communications market research company. LightCounting was established in 2004 with an objective of providing in-depth coverage of market and technologies for high speed optoelectronic interfaces employed in communications. By now, the company employs a team of industry experts and offers comprehensive coverage of optical communications supply chain. Dr. Kozlov has more than 20 years of experience in optoelectronics, optical communications and market research. Dr. Kozlov held market analyst, product development and research staff positions at RHK Inc., Lucent Technologies and Princeton University. Dr. Kozlov holds several US patents and has numerous publications in the area of optoelectronics. He received M. Sc. at Moscow State University in Russia and Ph. D in Physics at Brown University in the United States.


George Notter, Jefferies, USA
Presentation Title: An Improving Environment for Optical

Abstract: For Western Optical systems and components vendors, we expect an improving spending environment based on: 1) rising competitive intensity among Service Providers; 2) new stimulus funding flowing in rural broadband; and potential new market share opportunities vis-à-vis Huawei. 

George C. Notter is a Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst covering the Communications Infrastructure Sector.  Mr. Notter has 25 years of equity research experience exclusively in the Communications Infrastructure Sector.  He joined Jefferies in May 2004.  Prior to Jefferies, Mr. Notter served as a Communications Equipment Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank for four years.  Previously, he performed in the same role for Dain Rauscher Wessels, now a part of RBC Capital Markets.  Mr. Notter received a MS in Finance from the University of Wisconsin (1995).  While pursuing his Masters degree, he managed an investment portfolio for the renowned Applied Security Analysis Program at Wisconsin.  Notter also holds a BS degree in Finance from the University of Wisconsin (1993).  He was ranked #3 in the 2019 and 2020 Institutional Investor All-American Research poll and Runner-Up in the 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 polls.  In 2018, Notter was rated one of the Top 100 Wall Street Analysts for stock-picking performance (TipRanks).  In 2019, he won the Starmine award as the #1 Stock Picker in the Communications Equipment sector.  Notter lives in the Bay Area with his wife and two kids.     

 

Andrew Schmitt, Cignal Ai, USA
Presentation Title:
Coherent Pluggable Trends

Andrew Schmitt is the founder and directing analyst at Cignal AI, where he leads quantitative and qualitative research on the networking market’s entire supply chain. He is quoted and consulted by industry publications such as Lightwave and LightReading and is a member of the OFC Planning Committee. Mr. Schmitt is invited to speak at events including OFC, ECOC, FOE, and IIR conferences. He also provides consulting services to startups, carriers, vendors, and the investment community on developing business opportunities and market strategy.
 

Jimmy Yu, Dell’Oro, USA
Presentation Title: Optical Transport DWDM Systems Equipment Market
Abstract: Presentation reviewing the current and future state of the Optical Transport DWDM market with an industry analyst's view and market forecasts. Topics covered include vendor landscape, competition, and industry changes.

Jimmy Yu covers Optical Transport and Microwave Transmission market research at Dell’Oro Group, and since joining Dell’Oro Group in 2001 has become a recognized authority on the Optical Transport market. Prior to his time at Dell’Oro Group, Jimmy worked in product development at Northrop Grumman, management consulting at Deloitte Consulting, and strategic product marketing at Spansion. Mr. Yu received a B.S. degree in Mechanical Engineering from University of California, Davis and an M.B.A. from the University of Michigan.